Lebanon, Oregon 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

088
FXUS66 KPQR 222230
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
230 PM PST Sun Feb 22 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Active weather continues with valley rain and high
mountain snow through midweek. A nearby frontal boundary and
associated atmospheric river will bring periods of rain, with
increasing confidence that the highest rainfall totals will
occur south of Lane County and therefore decreasing chances for
river flooding locally. Low chances for rain linger but decrease
late this week into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Now through Tuesday Night...Latest satellite and
radar observations depict precipitation continuing across the
region this afternoon. A vertically-stacked closed low over the
Northeast Pacific has begun to open back into the mean flow,
transitioning to a very positively-tilted trough and elongated
region of vorticity aloft. This feature will support a prolonged
corridor of moisture transport into western Oregon, resulting in
widespread precipitation through much of the short-term period.

The passage of an initial boundary currently located near the
Cascades has seen the pressure gradient across the range (from
Portland to The Dalles) drop from -9 mb this morning to -2 mb
early this afternoon, which will maintain offshore flow but
should yield weakening wind gusts through today. Another
boundary offshore will slowly move inland this evening through
tonight, stall overhead through much of Tuesday, then finally
exit southeastward as a weak area of low pressure moves onshore
in the central Oregon coast through Tuesday night. This will
place the highest precipitation amounts closer to Cape Blanco
and Cape Mendocino, with local rainfall totals most likely
reaching 1.5-3.5" along the northern/central Oregon coast and
in the Coast Range and Cascades, and 1.0-2.5" elsewhere in
southwestern Washington and inland valleys of northwestern
Oregon. Chances to exceed 2" of rain generally increase from
north to south. Along the coast, those chances are 5% in
Astoria, 15% in Cannon Beach, 45% in Tillamook, 80% in Newport,
and 90% in Florence, while along the I-5 corridor, they are 5%
in Kelso/Longview, 45% in Portland, 60% in Salem, and 65% in
Eugene. The likelihood of reaching 3" of rain inland only
reaches 15-25% near Eugene and Cottage Grove, but is 35-65%
along the coast and in the Coast Range south of Lincoln City.
With snow levels largely remaining above 5000 ft through
Tuesday, rain is expected up to the Cascade passes with 30-60%
chances of 3" or more of rain along the Cascades. The chances
for 4" of rain have fallen to 15% or less across the region,
except for a few locales in the Coast Range south of Newport and
in the Cascades of Linn and Lane Counties.

These rainfall amounts on their own over 48-72 hours are
unlikely to raise flooding concerns, but the addition of
potential snowmelt runoff could raise the chances of mainstem
river flooding, particularly for rivers draining the Coast
Range, as well as flooding of smaller creeks and streams
draining both the Cascades and the Coast Range. Observations
are sparse across the Coast Range, but Snotel sites between
Tillamook and the Tualatin Valley snow the equivalent of 2-3" of
water available in the snowpack. To the south through the
central Coast Range, there are no Snotel observations so there
is lower confidence in the amount of snowpack available to melt;
a best proxy is perhaps sites at similar elevations in the
Cascades of eastern Lane and Linn Counties, which show less than
0.5" of potential added runoff. Despite uncertainty in snowmelt
amounts in the Coast Range, increasing confidence in the rainfall
forecast renders low (5% or less) chances of minor flooding of
mainstem rivers draining both westward to the coast and eastward
into the Willamette Valley. River forecasts remain sensitive to
the rainfall forecast, and changes to forecast river levels
should continue to be anticipated. -36


.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...As the trough finally
ejects eastward by midweek, a more zonal pattern is favored to
develop through the long term period. While the potential for a
shortwave arriving from the northwest maintains moderate chances
(40-60%) for rainfall at times through Thursday and Friday,
ensemble guidance is trending toward drier weather for next
weekend. During this mid to late week period, temperatures look
to hold near seasonal norms for late February. -99/36

&&

.AVIATION...Post-frontal showers continue throughout the
airspace, bringing mostly VFR conditions with occasional MVFR
conditions from passing heavier rain. Through the TAF period,
expect a mixed bag of MVFR/VFR as probabilistic guidance
suggests a 30-50% chance of MVFR conditions through 18Z
Monday, then increasing chances for MVFR and IFR conditions
thereafter (20-30% chance of IFR conditions after 18Z Monday).
Stratiform rain will likely become more prominent again around
12Z Monday as another rain band moves through the airspace.

Southeasterly sustained winds remain around 8-14 kt until around
12Z Monday, then weaken and shift more southerly. KTTD is the
exception, with windy conditions from the Columbia Gorge
bringing gusts up to 25 kt to the terminal. The pressure
gradient from KTTD to the KDLS has decreased substantially, so
expect gusty winds to come to an end around 12Z Monday for KTTD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Currently VFR with post-frontal rain
showers moving through the airspace. Expect a mixed bag of
MVFR/VFR conditions through most of the TAF period. Heavy rain
showers could briefly lower VIS to 5-6 SM. After 18Z Monday,
expect another band of stratiform rain to bring increased
chances of MVFR and possibly IFR conditions (50-70% chance of
MVFR; 15-25% chance of IFR). Southeasterly winds around 8-14 kt
will continue until around 12Z Monday, then decrease and shift
more southerly. ~12

&&

.MARINE...Seas remain above 15 ft this afternoon, with Buoy 89
recently reporting seas at 18 to 19 ft and Buoy 29 and 50
reporting seas at 16 to 17 ft. Seas peaked early today, so
expect  wave heights to ease overnight and into Monday. Winds
also peaked earlier today and will weaken overnight into Monday,
with recent observations of wind gusts 25 to 30 kt over the
waters. The Hazardous Seas Warning will continue until 7 PM
Monday, then transition to a Small Craft Advisory which will be
in effect until 10 AM Tuesday. Conditions continue to improve
headed into the middle of the week, with a fairly benign pattern
allowing seas to ease to 5 to 7 ft by Wednesday. Friday, a
fresh WSW swell may push seas above 10 feet. ~12

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.

WA...None.

PZ...Hazardous Seas Warning until 7 PM PST Monday for PZZ210-
     251>253-271>273.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 10 AM PST Tuesday for
     PZZ210-251>253-271>273.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/portland

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